Flush Draw Odds: How Often You Hit, and When to Call
With a flush draw on the flop you have 9 outs, and you make the flush by the river 35.0% of the time.
That is 19.1% on the turn, then 19.6% on the river if the turn misses. So once you are on the turn with one card to come, your chance is 19.6%.
The exact odds against the rule of 2 and 4
| When | Exact | Rule of 2 and 4 |
|---|---|---|
| On the turn | 19.1% | 18% |
| On the river, if the turn missed | 19.6% | 18% |
| By the river, from the flop | 35.0% | 36% |
The rule of 2 and 4 says to multiply your outs by 2 for one card to come and by 4 for two. For a flush draw it is never more than 1.6 points out. It overshoots more as the outs go up, so check the exact figure for big combo draws.
When to call with a flush draw
A call is worth it when your chance of winning is bigger than the share of the final pot you put in. Which chance to use depends on whether more betting can come.
All in on the flop, you see both cards, so use 35.0%. If they can bet again on the turn, this call only buys one card, so use 19.1%.
| Their bet | You need | One card (19.1%) | All in (35.0%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| a third of the pot | 20.0% | Short by 0.9 points | Call |
| half the pot | 25.0% | Short by 5.9 points | Call |
| two thirds of the pot | 28.6% | Short by 9.4 points | Call |
| the size of the pot | 33.3% | Short by 14.2 points | Call |
So against a bet of a third of the pot, a flush draw is just short with one card to come (19.1% against the 20.0% you need), but all in it is a clear call. All in against a pot-size bet, 35.0% against 33.3% is still a call, just.
A call that is just short can still be right when you will win a big bet after you hit. That extra is called implied odds, and it is why players call a small bet with a flush draw.
Try it: count the outs yourself
The outs calculator below is set up with this hand. Change any card to see how the odds move.
Your hand
Board (flop, + turn)
You have a flush draw
9 outs · 35%
to complete by the river (two cards to come). Next card alone: 19%.
Rule of 4 and 2: 9 × 4 ≈ 36% — a quick estimate of the exact 35%.
Nine outs is not the whole story
The 35.0% counts flushes only. Real hands win and lose in other ways. With A♥J♥ on K♥7♥2♣:
- Against top pair (K♠Q♦), the draw wins 45.6%, more than 35.0%, because an ace also gives you the best hand.
- Against a set of twos (2♠2♦), it wins only 25.6%. When the turn or river pairs the board they make a full house, which beats your flush.
How often you flop a flush draw
Holding two cards of the same suit, the flop brings exactly two more of your suit 10.9% of the time, and a made flush 0.84% of the time.
How to play a flush draw
A flush draw is a good hand to bet or raise with, not just to call with. A bet can win the pot straight away, and if you are called you still make the flush 35.0% of the time by the river. That is a semi-bluff, and the lesson on draws shows when to use one.
Know what to play from every seat
The free Preflop Pack: printable opening and all-in charts, the same ones the trainer drills.
Questions people ask
What are the odds of hitting a flush draw?
35.0% by the river from the flop. That is 19.1% on the turn, then 19.6% on the river if the turn missed.
How many outs does a flush draw have?
Nine. There are 13 cards in each suit, and you can already see four of yours: two in your hand and two on the board.
Should you call with a flush draw?
All in on the flop, call any bet up to the size of the pot: you need at most 33.3% and have 35.0%. If more betting can come, one card gives you 19.1%, so you need a bet under a third of the pot (20.0% needed) or a big payoff when you hit.
How this was worked out: exact counting. After the flop there are 47 cards you have not seen, and 9 of them make your flush. The two opponent examples count all 990 turn and river cards with PokerLeap’s equity engine.